Why These Probabilities? Click any scenario to expand the full evidence chain
How Probabilities Are Shifting Polymarket historical pricing
Persian Gulf Situation Map ECharts geo + real-time facility status
Source: AI-extracted from CENTCOM, Reuters, CNN. Hover for details.
Hormuz Strait Traffic Vessels per day — proxy for blockade severity
Polymarket Live Contracts Click any row to see 30-day price chart
What It Means for Your Portfolio Scenario-weighted expected returns
Where Markets May Be Mispricing Actual vs PM-implied fair value
Asset Performance Since War Began
War Timeline: Events, Oil & Ceasefire Dual-axis: Brent price + ceasefire probability
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